Monday, May 12, 2008

Until the lady in the pantsuits says

Hillary will win West Virginia by a blow-out margin on Tuesday as much as 40 points in a state that Bush won in 2000 and 2004. Clinton can bring the state back into the D column. Obama can't.

While Hillary campaigned across WV on Mother's Day, she received letters from moms expressing their support. One letter read, "It's not over until the lady in the pantsuit says it is.''

Later in the evening at a stop in Eleanor, WV, Clinton quoted Eleanor Roosevelt, "A woman is like a tea bag. You never know how strong she is until she's in hot water."

Clinton's campaign has drawn its strength from a 60-36 percentage advantage over Obama among white women voters in the primaries so far - though the gender gap is smaller among college-educated white women -- 54-43 percent -- according to exit polls conducted for The Associated Press and television networks.

"Keep fighting," another letter to Clinton had read, according to the candidate, reading aloud from the supporter's missive. "The fact is that you stood throughout the constant ups and downs of this race. You never wavered and you never gave up."

Anglachel reminded us yesterday in Democratic Blind Spots that:

Hillary = nominee = victory; Obama = nominee = defeat. Neither candidate has enough pledged delegates to get to 2209 votes without super delegates, so it is up to the SDs to decide the fate of the party in this electoral cycle. The nominee isn't the person with the most at a certain point in time, it is the person who first hits 2209.

Regardless of what the corporate press corps, which will certainly favor McCain in the fall, and the Obama camp hypes, this race is far from over. Anyone who has studied the pledged delegate scheme realizes how un-democratic the distribution of awarded delegates is.

If the Dem establishment ignores the will of the people via the popular vote, and who has carried the swing states, all key to an Electoral College victory, then they risk ignoring Anglachel's equation...

"Hillary = nominee = victory; Obama = nominee = defeat."