Plagued by a defection of Clinton supporters and white working class voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the leading Democratic presidential contender, trails Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican candidate, in Florida and Ohio, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today. Sen. Obama is six points ahead in Pennsylvania. New York Sen. Clinton wins handily in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:
Florida: Clinton tops McCain 48 - 41 percent; McCain leads Obama 45 - 41 percent;
Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 41 percent; McCain tops Obama 44 - 40 percent;
Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 50 - 37 percent; Obama leads McCain 46 - 40 percent.
In the McCain-Obama matchups, 26 to 36 percent of Clinton supporters in each state say that if Obama is the nominee they would switch to the Republican in November. Only 10 to 18 percent of Obama supporters say they would defect to McCain if Clinton is the nominee.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Hillary still leads in key swing states
Wednesday, April 02, 2008
Hillary leads in swing state polls
The results of the latest Quinnipiac University Poll (with emphasis):
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a 50 - 41 percent lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters and runs better against Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican nominee in Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 53 - 41 percent lead in a March 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In general election match ups of the three largest and most important swing states in the Electoral College, the survey finds.
Florida: Clinton 44 percent - McCain 42 percent; McCain beats Obama 46 - 37 percent;
Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 39 percent; Obama gets 43 percent to McCain's 42 percent;
Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 48 - 40 percent; Obama leads McCain 43 - 39 percent.
The primary vote between Obama and Clinton splits sharply along racial lines, with her advantage coming from stronger support in every contest from white voters. For example, Clinton leads 59 - 34 percent among white Pennsylvania likely primary voters, while Obama leads 73 - 11 percent among black Democrats.
"When it comes to November, Sen. Hillary Clinton's strength is a big edge over Sen. Barack Obama among white voters, who have not given a majority of their votes to a Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute."
More than a third of voters in the three states think Obama's race is an advantage, more than twice the number who think it is a disadvantage. By contrast, roughly a quarter of voters say Clinton's gender is an advantage, and about the same number think it is a disadvantage.
"Former Democratic vice presidential nominee Geraldine Ferraro's assertion that Obama's race has helped his candidacy finds some support among the electorate," said Brown.
"At least for now, Sen. Clinton's argument that she is the better general election candidate in these key battleground states appears to have some validity," said Brown. "In this survey, her strength among white voters is why she runs better against Sen. McCain than does Sen. Obama.
"Roughly one in five Democrats in the three states say they will vote for McCain against Obama, but less than 10 percent say they would vote for McCain over Clinton. Among white Democrats, 23 percent defect to McCain in a matchup with Obama, but only 11 percent defect when Clinton is the Democratic candidate." Pennsylvania
Among Pennsylvania Democrats, Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent with women, and ties Obama 46 - 46 percent with men. Obama leads 51 - 42 percent among voters under 45 years old, while Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent among voters over 45.
By a 48 - 42 percent margin, Pennsylvania registered voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Obama gets a 49 - 31 percent favorability and McCain gets 47 - 31 percent.
"Sen. Clinton's imaginary snipers, Rev. Wright, Geraldine Ferraro, these events have taken only a small toll on Sen. Clinton's lead in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Her strength is her clear advantage among white voters - blue collar whites, less educated whites, economically hurting whites, that group known famously as Reagan Democrats in the Keystone State. Obama is marshalling all his forces, but despite his eloquent dialogue on the race issue, Pennsylvania Democrats are unmoved. So Far."
The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 46 percent of voters say, followed by 23 percent who list the war in Iraq and 14 percent who cite health care.
Looking at the most important quality in a candidate, 30 percent want a strong leader and 26 percent want someone who is trustworthy.
Being black is an advantage for Obama, 32 percent say, while 15 percent say it's a disadvantage and 47 percent say it makes no difference.
Being a woman is an advantage for Clinton, 26 percent say, with 25 percent saying it's a disadvantage and 45 percent saying it makes no difference.
For further details, click the link to the full analysis.
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
Late night election edition
Sen. Hillary Clinton wins big in the Democratic primaries: Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island. Obama wins Vermont. Republican John McCain clinched the GOP nomination. The numbers via CNN:
OHIO -- 92% of precincts reporting
Clinton 55%, 1,112,204 votes, 62 delegates
Obama 43%, 867,072 votes, 46 delegates
McCain 60%, 602,380 votes, 79 delegates
Huckabee, 31%, 313,060 votes, 0 delegates
Paul 5%, 46,481 votes, 0 delegates
RHODE ISLAND -- 98% of Democratic & Republican precincts reporting
Clinton 58%, 106,471 votes, 12 delegates
Obama 40%, 73,609 votes, 8 delegates
Uncommitted 1%, 1,012 votes, 0 delegates
McCain 65%, 17,342 votes, 13 delegates
Huckabee 22%, 5,766 votes, 0 delegates
Paul 7%, 1,761 votes, 0 delegates
Uncommitted 2%, 565 votes, 0 delegates
TEXAS -- 90% of Democratic precincts reporting
Clinton 51%, 1,364,045 votes, 16 delegates
Obama 47%, 1,262,137 votes, 10 delegates
TEXAS -- 93% of Republican precincts reporting
McCain 51%, 681,405 votes, 70 delegates
Huckabee 38%, 500,451 votes, 0 delegates
Paul, 5%, 67,293 votes, 0 delegates
Uncommitted 1%, 16,952 votes, 0 delegates
TEXAS Democratic caucuses -- 34% of precincts reporting
Obama 55%, 19,197 votes, 0 delegates
Clinton 45%, 15,480 votes, 0 delegates
Uncommitted 0% 32 votes, 0 delegates
VERMONT -- 86% of precincts reporting
Obama 60%, 82,498 votes, 9 delegates
Clinton 38%, 52,839 votess, 6 delegates
McCain 72%, 25,070 votes, 17 delegates
Huckabee 14%, 4,867 votes, 0 delegates
Paul 7%, 2,332 votes, 0 delegates
No candidate who has won the White House has walked into the Oval Office without winning Ohio. Maybe Obama should bow out of the presidential race for the good of the Democratic Party, eh? Of course, I jest but in the Obamasphere, the shrieks that Hillary should drop out have been unseemly and unDemocratic. So, suck it up. Hillary will fight all the way to the convention.
The biggest loser tonight--all the media hacks who have written Hillary off how many times now?
